Découvrez les résultats des recherches d'AKADEMIYA2063 sur les impacts de la crise ukrainienne sur les économies africaines Suivre
PERTURBATIONS DU MARCHÉ MONDIAL ET ÉCONOMIES AFRICAINES
La pandémie de la Covid-19 s’est répandue aux quatre coins du monde, entraînant des effets perturbateurs sur l’économie mondiale. Les marchés mondiaux des produits primaires sont particulièrement perturbés par les nombreuses mesures prises pour s’adapter à la pandémie et contrôler sa propagation. Les mesures visant à réduire au minimum le risque de transmission de l’infection à travers les frontières interfèrent directement avec le fonctionnement normal du commerce mondial (ralentissements ou entraves à la circulation des marchandises). Les effets sur les chaînes de l’offre au niveau mondial peuvent avoir des répercussions importantes sur les économies nationales. Les changements de prix des exportations ou des importations qui en résultent, par exemple, se traduisent par des gains ou des pertes de recettes en devises étrangères. Il en va de même pour la disponibilité du fret ou le fonctionnement des aéroports et des ports ; les changements dans ce domaine ont une incidence directe sur le coût et le volume des marchandises expédiées. Enfin, les changements de comportement des consommateurs, y compris dans les conditions de confinement, peuvent engendrer des conséquences similaires.
En définitive, la dynamique de l’offre et de la demande dicte l’évolution des prix. Les économies individuelles sont affectées en fonction de leur exposition aux chocs sur les différents marchés. Le degré d’exposition dépend à son tour de la composition du panier de biens qu’elles échangent sur les marchés étrangers. Plus leurs exportations ou importations sont orientées vers des biens dont les prix mondiaux évoluent favorablement, plus elles ont tendance à en bénéficier, et inversement.
Les variations des quantités exportées et importées ainsi que les variations correspondantes des prix sont transmises aux entreprises et aux consommateurs nationaux, ce qui entraîne des ajustements au niveau des activités de production et de la consommation. Ces changements affectent ainsi le rythme de la croissance économique, les revenus disponibles et donc les moyens de subsistance. L’impact final dépendra de la capacité de l’économie à s’adapter aux conditions changeantes du marché. Ainsi, une économie qui trouve les moyens de compenser les fluctuations de prix ou de quantités échangées sera mieux outillée pour atténuer l’impact négatif des perturbations du marché mondial.
INTRODUCTION
La pandémie de COVID-19 affecte les économies africaines de plusieurs manières. En effet, ces économies sont affectées par les marchés financiers et les marchés de capitaux, par le commerce et les transactions au niveau mondial, mais aussi par l’offre et la demande ainsi que les marchés du travail et l’emploi, au niveau local. Cet axe de travail se concentre sur les perturbations du commerce mondial des produits causées par la COVID-19 et sur les effets de ces perturbations sur le commerce, la croissance et la pauvreté dans les pays africains. L’analyse utilise les modèles existants d’équilibre général calculable (EGC) par pays pour l’analyse de l’ensemble de l’économie, combinés à des modèles de micro-simulation pour l’analyse de la pauvreté. Elle s’appuie sur les données disponibles des enquêtes nationales les plus récentes, sur les matrices de comptabilité sociale de l’ensemble de l’économie, sur les données et les prévisions des prix internationaux des produits et sur les données du commerce mondial. Les effets de la pandémie sont évalués en comparant un scénario pré-COVID-19 basé sur des prévisions de prix des produits déjà existantes avec un scénario COVID-19 basé sur des prévisions actualisées. Un scénario de prix des produits est élaboré pour chaque pays en fonction de la composition de son commerce extérieur ; le même scenario est utilisé pour évaluer les effets des perturbations commerciales liées à la pandémie de COVID-19.
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 in percentage point (pp)
Source: Computation from the World Bank Commodity Price Forecasts, October 2019 and April 2020. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp).
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computation from the World Bank Commodity Price Forecasts, October 2019 and April 2020. Data retrieved on July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computation from United Nations Commodities trade Database, United Nations DESA. Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://comtrade.un.org/data
Télécharger image
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp)
Source: Computed from the Commodity Market Outlook (World Bank). Data retrieved in July 2020 from https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Note: Differences between prices forecast in April 2020 and in October 2019 are in percentage points (pp)
Source: Simulation Results (August 2020).
Note: The COVID scenarios (1 to 36) combine different values of trade (import and export) elasticities. Scenario 1 uses the highest values and scenario 36 the lowest elasticity values. Export price refers to the average weighted F.O.B. price indexes. Import price refers to the average weighted C.I.F. price indexes. Export and import values are in constant 2019 prices
Source: Simulation Results (August 2020).
Note: The COVID scenarios (1 to 36) combine different values of trade (import and export) elasticities across commodities to mimic the responsiveness of the Nigerian economy to changing global market conditions. Scenario 1 uses the highest and scenario 36 the lowest elasticity values. The remaining scenarios in combine difference values of elasticities between the two extremes. Export price refers to the average weighted F.O.B. price indexes. Import price refers to the average weighted C.I.F. price indexes. Export and import values are in constant 2019 prices.
Découvrez les activités et projets d’AKADEMIYA2063 liés à la transformation des systèmes alimentaires et au Sommet des Nations Unies sur les systèmes alimentaires 2021 Suivre